'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
'The scrapping of import duty would help Indian companies compete in international markets, thus paving the way for India becoming a space manufacturing hub for the world.'
From FY20 to FY24, the revenue forgone due to tax incentives for individuals and Hindu undivided families stood at Rs 8.7 trillion, significantly higher than the Rs 4.53 trillion forgone for corporations.
Domestic steel prices have seen an increase over the past couple of months in anticipation of a safeguard duty, but a looming global trade war is likely to weigh as threat of import rises and prospect of export flounders. Data from BigMint showed that in March 2025, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices ex-Mumbai increased by Rs 600 per tonne month-on-month (M-o-M), rising from Rs 48,400 per tonne in February to Rs 49,000 per tonne.
Earlier in the day, an IndiGo A320 passenger aircraft landed successfully at 1.32 pm at runway 08/26 of the under-construction Navi Mumbai International Airport, paving the way for the Navi Mumbai International Airport Ltd (NMIAL) to seek an aerodrome licence from the aviation safety regulator Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to start commercial flight services.
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With its age-old fascination for education, southern states have done better than the North. Start-ups, IT hubs, and industry majors setting up shop have changed the face of the South. Nearly 79% of global offices set up by international conglomerates in India are in the South. Almost 46% of tech unicorns are from the South. The GDP per person in the South is 4.2 times higher than the North. None of these indicators can be ignored by any central government, whatever the political compulsions, notes Ramesh Menon.
'Our attempt to honour the taxpayer has been since 2014 and more actively since 2019-2020 onwards.'
Few finance ministers announce any taxation measure that could upset the stock market. Ms Sitharaman decided to take that risk, observes A K Bhattacharya.
The fresh meat and seafood delivery startup Licious plans to set up 500 stores nationwide within the next five years as part of an omnichannel strategy. The aim is to attract new users in the offline channel and encourage them to transact online as well. The move would also help the company in its efforts to achieve profitability and go for an initial public offering (IPO) in the next 24 months, according to the sources.
The Centre could better its fiscal deficit at 6.6 per cent of GDP in this financial year on stronger-than-expected revenue buoyancy, even if the budgeted disinvestment target is not met, Fitch Ratings has said. The international rating agency had last week kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook, and said that the risks to India's medium-term growth outlook are narrowing with rapid economic recovery from the pandemic and easing financial sector pressures. In an email interview with PTI, Fitch Ratings Director (Asia-Pacific Sovereigns) Jeremy Zook said the two key positive triggers that could lead to a revision of the outlook to stable are implementation of a credible medium-term fiscal strategy to lower debt burden and higher medium-term investment and growth rates without the creation of macroeconomic imbalances, such as from successful structural reform implementation and a healthier financial sector.
'Nearly 10 million people will benefit from the increase in the rebate limit for those earning up to Rs 12 lakh.' 'We expect all that money will come back into the economy in either savings, consumption, or investments.'
With the fiscal deficit target staring at the government, the FY25 Budget has limited expenditure options, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Indian economy is in a sweet spot, with a mix of solid growth and moderating inflation, Moody's Ratings said, forecasting a 7.2 per cent GDP growth in the 2024 calendar year and 6.6 per cent in the next. In its Global Macro Outlook 2025-26, the rating agency said the global economy has shown remarkable resilience in bouncing back from supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, an energy and food crisis after the Russia-Ukraine war began, high inflation and consequent monetary policy tightening.
If the fiscal deficit target of 4.9% of GDP has to be met for 2024-2025, which the government must in view of the uncertainties and challenges emerging both domestically and globally, the finance ministry may see in the composition of the current year's capex a sliver of hope, notes A K Bhattacharya.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday kept its forecast for India's economic growth unchanged at 6 per cent in the fiscal year starting April 1, before rising to 6.9 per cent in the following year. In the quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific, S&P saw inflation rate easing to 5 per cent in 2023-24 fiscal, from 6.8 per cent in the current financial year. It saw India's gross domestic product (GDP) likely growing by 7 per cent in the current financial year ending March 31 (2022-23), before slowing to 6 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal.
State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) expects a USD 10.3 billion revenue boost from increased oil and gas production, achieved through a partnership with UK's BP in the Mumbai High field.
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
The finance minister, in her Budget speech, should focus more on what she is directly responsible for, rather than on programmes where her role is largely supportive, notes Nitin Desai.
In a year bookended by intractable conflicts and geopolitical fragmentation, India focused on ramping up military prowess by broadly firming up defence procurement worth Rs 4.22 lakh crore even as Indian and Chinese militaries completed pulling back their troops from border face-off points in eastern Ladakh.
Thrust on infrastructure and capital expenditure is expected to continue in the Union Budget for FY25.
The average cost of data breaches in India reached $2.18 million in 2023, marking a 28 per cent increase since 2020, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Currency and Finance report for 2023-24. The report said that India's average data breach cost was still below the global average. The most common attacks in India are phishing which was at 22 per cent and stolen or compromised credentials was 16 per cent. The automotive industry is highly vulnerable to cyber attacks, whereas the banking and financial services sector, benefiting from stringent regulations, enjoys comparatively stronger protection.
'We have essentially tried to set out an agenda for the next five years and it, in essence, represents the political commitment to that agenda.'
Amid rising demand for coal freight and an aggressive push towards diversifying its freight basket, Indian Railways is planning to buy 100,000 more wagons over the next three fiscal years. The procurement plan will majorly comprise BOXN wagons, which are used to transport coal, said a senior Ministry of Railways official. Notably, the railways recently floated a sizeable tender worth Rs 35,000 crore of wagons, which had been in the pipeline since 2018. "Our Budget Estimates for freight increase were conservative.
The Budget should use the extra RBI surplus to better effect, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
The proposed exemption in customs duty on import of lithium, cobalt and other rare minerals in the Union Budget 2024-25 is likely to lower the battery production cost and help in making electric vehicles more affordable for the buyers, auto industry leaders said on Tuesday.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
The finance minister's assertion that industry should not expect any spectacular announcements in the 2024 interim Budget suggest that the electoral imperatives of more tax concessions or higher expenditure on welfarist programmes could be far less pronounced than they were before the 2019 interim Budget, expects A K Bhattacharya.
Indian economy is expected to clock an average growth rate of 6.7 per cent till 2026-27 fiscal driven by domestic consumption, S&P Global Ratings senior Economist (Asia Pacific) Vishrut Rana said on Wednesday. He said the economic growth in the current fiscal is expected to come in around 6 per cent, lower than 7.2 per cent clocked in 2022-23. "We are seeing some headwinds from the trade side which is affecting activity and that is one of the factors that is affecting growth this year," Rana said at a webinar.
'I found it unbelievable that L&T said 45,000 jobs were waiting to be filled because of unavailability of suitable skillsets.' 'So, when the Opposition sweepingly says there are no jobs, I'm sorry... I'm not saying it's raining jobs, but there are jobs. The (skill) gap has to be bridged.'
Polarisation in the performance of Indian banks will persist as many large public sector banks are still saddled with weak assets, high credit costs, and poor earnings, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. It said State Bank of India and leading private sector banks have largely addressed their asset quality challenges, and their profitability is improving more sharply than the banking system. In its Global Banking Outlook-2023 report, S&P said economic recovery is driving credit costs to cyclical low levels and stronger balance sheets and higher demand should boost bank loan growth, but deposit growth will lag.
'The prime minister's comment on 'revdi culture' was welcome. But I am disappointed he did not follow up on that.' 'All political parties, including the BJP, have been guilty of this.' 'Now, Modi's guarantees, the Congress's 'nyay' path and both ruling and Opposition parties are vying with each other for freebies in my home state Andhra Pradesh.'
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
The jury is still out on the decision to demonetise high value currency notes on November 8, 2016, with the government claiming it has helped greater formalisation of the economy while critics saying it has failed to curb black money and reduce dependence on cash. On November 8, six years ago, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced the demonetisation of old Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 banknotes and one of the key objectives of the unprecedented decision was to promote digital payments and curb black money, besides eliminating terror funding. As per a Reserve Bank data, currency with the public has jumped to a new high of Rs 30.88 lakh crore an October 21, indicating that cash usage is still substantial even six years after the demonetisation move.
Apple Inc is expected to produce iPhones worth $12 billion (freight on board value) in India during 2023-24, according to discussions between the company's vendors and the government. This would account for around 12 per cent of Apple's global iPhone production-higher than the earlier plan of shifting around 9 per cent of the total to India by FY24, which is the third year of the PLI (production-linked incentive) scheme.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
'Karnataka's finances are much healthier than the Union government's, which is indebted to nearly twice the extent of the state.'
'The finance ministry's decision to accept the deficit target of 4.5 per cent in 2025-2026 appears to have emanated from its endorsement of the Finance Commission's view that the Indian economy will continue to remain impacted by the pandemic, adversely undermining its growth potential,' notes A K Bhattacharya.
The finance minister could well be on her way to setting a record of achieving the biggest single-year reduction in the government's fiscal deficit, explains A K Bhattacharya.
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